Kyiv.Ukraine.Ukraine Gate – November 15,2021- Russia can cut off gas supplies to Europe for a short time, but it still has to resume supplies based on its economic interests.
“Is it possible to stop the supply of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline (which passes through Belarus – ed.)? Perhaps. For example, let me remind you that on January 7, 2009, Russia stopped the transit of gas through the Ukrainian gas transportation system. This Anything is possible,” said Unigovsky. Noting that the European Union is preparing for such a scenario.
According to him, now about 40% of the total gas is supplied to Europe from Russia: “Therefore, Europe is somehow forced to take into account this undisguised pressure from Russia.”
The expert also does not rule out a short-term cessation of Russian gas transportation through Ukraine’s GTS.
“The issue of Gazprom paying for the ordered capacity but not physically transporting gas is being considered and studied. In my opinion, this is possible in the short term. The Ukrainian government and the Ukrainian gas transmission system operator are preparing for this. This option is not ruled out,” Unihovsky said.
Due to Russia’s gas blackmail, in his opinion, the heating season 2021-2022 in Ukraine will be quite tense. “Probably, we can’t say that everything is calm, everything is cloudless. We need to say that there is no catastrophe, no critical situation. But the situation is quite tense,” the expert said.
He noted that the suspension of gas transportation to Europe will not last long, as it will negatively affect Russia’s economic interests.
“But there are also issues related to Europe’s attitude to Gazprom, because its reputation as a reliable gas supplier has been shaken. However, a short-term cessation of gas supplies is possible,” Unihovsky concluded.
As reported, the self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko has threatened to close the Yamal gas pipeline , which supplies Russian gas to Europe, if the EU decides to close its borders due to the migration crisis.
In response to Lukashenko’s threats, EU Energy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said that in 2022 the defense concept of the “EU Strategic Compass” would be approved, which would include security of gas supply.
It will be recalled that on November 12, the supply of Russian gas through the Yamal pipeline to Europe decreased by about 40% compared to the previous day. At the same time, the volume of gas pumping through Ukraine remained unchanged.
