During the winter period, the hryvnia exchange rate will “fluctuate only within the limits of typical currency fluctuations” on the stock exchange. As economic expert Andriy Novak says , this will be influenced by balanced foreign trade and financial flows coming to the country.
Ukraine , Ukraingate , 18 , November , 2021 , Internaional News.
“Today we have no financial or economic risks at the hryvnia exchange rate. Ironically, thanks to the coronavirus, and the restrictions applied by countries around the world, over the past year and a half we have balanced foreign trade. Our exports have not decreased at all, but our imports have fallen sharply – by 16%. And thus, our foreign trade is balanced, and this is one of the two key factors that shape the hryvnia exchange rate, ”Novak said.
Among other things, the expert also names the financial flows that come to and from the country. Novak noted that this is greatly influenced by the huge inflows of currencies from Ukrainian workers, which have increased by 10% over the past year.
He also added that Ukraine continues to receive foreign financial assistance from the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and other governments, which also affects the economic balance.
“As a result, we have a positive consolidated balance of payments. That is, there are no financial, purely economic risks for the devaluation of the hryvnia now. There is only one risk left – the risk of artificial devaluation of the hryvnia. This is a technique that, unfortunately, has been used many times by various Ukrainian governments. This is done in order to easily fill the budget, if it is a critical situation. So far, nominally, it is not clear that there is a critical situation with the filling of the budget, and therefore even the risk of artificial devaluation is now minimal, “- added Novak.
Let’s add
On October 25, Ukraine received the second tranche of EU macro-financial assistance in the amount of 600 million euros. According to the Ministry of Finance, the loan was provided in the form of a long-term loan at an interest rate of 0.250% with a maturity in April 2036.
The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund plans to consider a poll on the allocation of the next tranche to Ukraine on November 22.
At the same time, the NBU reported that Ukraine’s international reserves increased to 29.7 billion dollars. in October – by 3.3% per month.
Source : Ukrgate
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