Washington is likely to want to play a larger role in the negotiations on the war in Donbas.
It is unlikely that any country will benefit more from Joe Biden’s presidency than Ukraine. The winner of the American elections knows the country very well, because, while still the vice-president of the United States, he was responsible for the Ukrainian direction of American policy. He is committed to the internal reforms that Kiev is pursuing.
The Vice President Biden has visited Ukraine at least five times. As a result of this intense interaction, a wonderful team has emerged that is very well versed in Ukrainian issues. In particular, this is what the author calls Dr. Michael Carpenter, who is likely to become a key official in the new administration for Ukrainian affairs.
Kiev, albeit unintentionally, played a role in Biden’s victory over Donald Trump in the election. The impeachment of the American president relied on his telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the summer of 2019. Trump and his personal lawyer Rudolph Giuliani also tried to use Russian disinformation collected in Ukraine against Biden.
In addition, Trump fired US officials who supported Ukraine, notably Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch and Colonel Alexander Windman. The rest of the officials had to shut up. Trump’s decision to prioritize ties with Vladimir Putin instead of Kiev has destroyed US Ukrainian policy.
Despite all these unfavorable conditions, Ukraine continued to enjoy strong bipartisan support in Washington throughout the Trump presidency. Even officials loyal to him, such as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, have been quite supportive of Ukraine. Biden will strengthen this bipartisan support and make it operational. Since May 2019, after Trump fired Jovanovitch, the United States has not had a permanent ambassador to Ukraine. Now American politics will become more active. Because Ukraine has become important to US interests from many points of view.
Fortunately, Trump has been unable to stop or even cut American military aid to Kiev. Biden will maintain this support and will likely increase it. This will give the Kremlin reason to think. Attempts by pro-Russian forces in Ukraine to spread anti-American and anti-Western sentiment will also lose credibility. US action against the Kremlin suffered from a lack of consistency during the Trump presidency. The American president wanted to lift or at least weaken the sanctions against Russia at a time when many senators in the United States, on the contrary, wanted to strengthen them. This created confusion and undermined efficiency.
Biden, who was one of the authors of the US sanctions against Russia, can restore clarity and strengthen the measures that already exist. According to the author, the Biden administration will definitely want to play a role in the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia regarding the war in Donbass. The Kremlin is well aware of Biden, who has earned a reputation for being a hardliner on Putin.
While still vice president, Biden fought vigorously to establish the rule of law in Ukraine. He is ready to do this even more decisively, becoming the president of the United States. And this is bad news for various forces in Kiev that are trying to cancel anti-corruption initiatives or block judicial reform.