Currently, there is a trend for the complete elimination of nuclear weapons all over the world, and if this potential is not increased, then by the end of this century, nuclear ammunition will disappear naturally. The only thing that can be a threat to this process is China’s plan to increase its nuclear potential. This opinion was expressed by Oleksiy Izhak, the head of the research sector of the Central region of the National Institute of Strategic Studies,
KYIV. UkraineGate . 8. August . 2022 | Political News .
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“Nuclear weapons in our world are temporary. Yes, while it exists and, unlike chemical and biological weapons, can be a legitimate means of waging war. Currently, most countries choose to be nuclear-free, 190 of them. 5 countries are officially nuclear. And there are also unofficial nuclear nations like North Korea and Iran. Most countries have given up nuclear weapons not because it is such a big technological or financial problem. They decided that such weapons should not exist, should be eliminated completely in the future, and this moment should be approached as soon as possible. If you look at the history of nuclear weapons, the peak of their accumulation occurred in the early 80s. Since then, it has been gradually reduced, and if this trend continues, nuclear warheads will be phased out by the end of this century due to aging. Of course, provided if they are not specifically supported. Both the US and Russia agree to the gradual decommissioning of nuclear weapons. Currently, only the means of delivery of nuclear weapons are being improved, there are regular updates here. But the new nuclear munitions themselves are not being produced,” Izhak said.
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There are countries that are trying to create new munitions instead of helping to eliminate them. As, for example, North Korea or Iran does. However, the expert believes that this is not a decisive influence on the elimination of nuclear weapons. For example, North Korea has a small amount of ammunition, and annually they create 1-2 of them. And if the whole world abandons nuclear weapons, they will eventually disappear in North Korea as well. According to the expert, China will play a major role in the liquidation.
“Of course, it seems to me that China’s refusal to plan to build up its nuclear potential is important. After all, they plan to increase the number of ammunition to 1,000 by 2030. For comparison, the USA and Russia have about 1,500 deployed ammunition. And in general, these countries have about 4,500 munitions on each side. Not all of them are deployed, there are some that are preparing for liquidation. This is significantly less than it was in the 80s, when the total stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world was about 70,000. But for now, China’s plan is to increase its potential, only to reduce it later at the level of the United States and Russia. And currently, this is a greater threat to the movement towards a nuclear-free world than the problem of Korea or Iran. Although these are very important symbolic cases in the rejection of the nuclear option. But today the risks for this are created by the behavior of China and Russia,” Izhak believes.
In 1968, non-nuclear countries joined the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and agreed to the idea of temporary possession of nuclear weapons. However, the expert notes, most of the non-nuclear countries believe that the abandonment of nuclear weapons is proceeding too slowly, and this process must be accelerated. In 2017, the process of concluding the Treaty on the Complete Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons was launched, which entered into force in 2021. However, its participants are only non-nuclear countries, and no nuclear country agrees with it.
“The general position of the UN and the Secretary General, who is the depository of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, as well as the position of most countries of the world, is that nuclear weapons should be eliminated as soon as possible. Faster than this process occurs naturally. And so the Secretary General of the UN, in connection with the next review conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, declared that the world should move towards freedom from nuclear weapons. Therefore, the general trend of the world is that China should not increase its potential, North Korea and Iran should give up their nuclear programs, and Russia should reconsider its belief in nuclear weapons,” the expert said.
Source : Ukrgate