Kiev. Ukraine. Ukraine Gate – February 03, 2021 – Economy
On Wednesday, the foreign exchange market will be quite interesting.
On the one hand – ahead of the calculations of investors in the amount of almost 5.3 billion hryvnias according to the results of yesterday’s auction of the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine for the placement of IGLBs. Even taking into account the fact that today the same Ministry of Finance has to pay interest on 7 issues of bonds – the overall balance will be positive for the budget. Combined with the fact that, according to our data, large exporters have already spent almost the entire hryvnia of January VAT refunds – the demand for the hryvnia will increase, and this will hedge the national currency on the interbank market.
On the other hand, the period of buying currency by the “daughters” of foreign companies for the repatriation of dividends begins, which traditionally increases the activity of speculators on the interbank market and the game of “raising”. Not against such developments and large exporters, to whom the extra hryvnia from the sale of foreign exchange earnings will never prevent. Energy buyers are also becoming more active. Prices for oil and gas on world markets are gradually rising, and customers in this market segment prefer to actively buy similar products now, so as not to overpay. Given the heating season and the worsening weather in Ukraine, this guarantees energy importers a good sale of their products, and they are in a hurry to make money. In addition, the depreciation of the interbank market in recent days is forcing those buyers who waited for the minimum level of quotations and before that was in no hurry to buy the currency.
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Due to settlements with IGLBs, increased activity of “daughters” of foreign companies and energy importers – according to forecasts, today the trading statistics will increase to $ 200-220 million with the conclusion of up to 600 deals. Due to the gradual growth of demand for the currency, we do not expect a significant decrease in quotations in the coming days below the level of 28 hryvnia. As yesterday – on Wednesday, the foreign exchange market will remain hostage to the actions and coursework of large customers.
Quotations of the interbank market, according to forecasts, on February 3 will be within dollar – corridor 28.00 – 28.20 UAH, euro – corridor 33.60 – 33.90 UAH.
Average rates on the interbank market after the opening of the market:
Dollar USA – 25.02 / 25.04
Euro – 33.72 / 33.75